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shirenomadI had an epiphany about Iraq that I'm going to share with you. It'll be hard to hear for both sides, but I think it's the truth, and I think history backs me up. I also think this epiphany stays politically neutral, but I'm putting it behind a cut anyway.
Still reading? Then here goes. We are never leaving Iraq.
I am not saying this as a someone who thinks this is a good (or bad) thing. I'm saying this as someone who believes this is reality.
Here's my evidence: Tell me, if you will, when we left Germany after WWII. I'll give you a hint: never. How about when we left Japan? Never. South Korea? Never. I even checked the numbers.* As of 2005, we had 31,000 troops deployed in South Korea, 35,500 deployed in Japan, and a whopping 66,500 in Germany. (That last number is nothing compared to our deployment during the Cold War, which usually floated around 250,000.) By comparison, that same year we had 150,000 troops in Iraq. There hasn't been a military threat to Germany since the Soviet Bloc collapsed 15 years, and we've got nearly half the troops there that we have taking on a major insurgent force elsewhere.
Now let's look at when we pulled out of Vietnam. Within two years of the withdrawal of the majority of our forces, South Vietnam surrendered. Let's look at some other examples of us pulling out. Germany, 1918. Yes, that held together nicely, right up to the point where they conquered Europe. Iraq, 1991. Back in 15 years later. When we pull out, the situation becomes such that we wind up having to go back in again -- or, if we don't have the will/interest to return (Vietnam), leave whoever's in there to clean up the mess.
I expect (and hope) that our forces in Iraq will be reduced over time. But even if Iraq itself is totally stabilized, it is right next door to Iran (really dislikes both Iraq and the US), Syria (doesn't like the US and may not be fond of the Iraqi government we helped install), and Saudi Arabia (largely friendly to the US, but a very powerful monarchy that may not like a Arabic democracy on its doorstep giving its citizens funny ideas). So the only reason I expect us to pull out of Iraq completely -- in fact, the only reason I expect our deployment to drop below 50,000 in the next ten years -- is because we've given up on the place.
* Source: Global U.S. Troop Deployment, 1950-2005
Still reading? Then here goes. We are never leaving Iraq.
I am not saying this as a someone who thinks this is a good (or bad) thing. I'm saying this as someone who believes this is reality.
Here's my evidence: Tell me, if you will, when we left Germany after WWII. I'll give you a hint: never. How about when we left Japan? Never. South Korea? Never. I even checked the numbers.* As of 2005, we had 31,000 troops deployed in South Korea, 35,500 deployed in Japan, and a whopping 66,500 in Germany. (That last number is nothing compared to our deployment during the Cold War, which usually floated around 250,000.) By comparison, that same year we had 150,000 troops in Iraq. There hasn't been a military threat to Germany since the Soviet Bloc collapsed 15 years, and we've got nearly half the troops there that we have taking on a major insurgent force elsewhere.
Now let's look at when we pulled out of Vietnam. Within two years of the withdrawal of the majority of our forces, South Vietnam surrendered. Let's look at some other examples of us pulling out. Germany, 1918. Yes, that held together nicely, right up to the point where they conquered Europe. Iraq, 1991. Back in 15 years later. When we pull out, the situation becomes such that we wind up having to go back in again -- or, if we don't have the will/interest to return (Vietnam), leave whoever's in there to clean up the mess.
I expect (and hope) that our forces in Iraq will be reduced over time. But even if Iraq itself is totally stabilized, it is right next door to Iran (really dislikes both Iraq and the US), Syria (doesn't like the US and may not be fond of the Iraqi government we helped install), and Saudi Arabia (largely friendly to the US, but a very powerful monarchy that may not like a Arabic democracy on its doorstep giving its citizens funny ideas). So the only reason I expect us to pull out of Iraq completely -- in fact, the only reason I expect our deployment to drop below 50,000 in the next ten years -- is because we've given up on the place.
* Source: Global U.S. Troop Deployment, 1950-2005
